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Crucially, however, they controlled only for confounding factors that could be clearly interpreted as such. They tried to account for so many effects that it becomes impossible to interpret what these effects are telling us about the real relation between early self-control and later success.“ Falk, Kosse and Pinger have now performed a similar analysis. In their efforts to isolate the effect of self-control, the authors of the replication study conducted an analysis which suffers from what is known as ‘the bad control problem’. This makes it very difficult to decide which traits are causatively linked to later educational success. “Children who waited for longer before eating their marshmallows differ in numerous respects from those who consumed the treat immediately. The second criticism of the methodology relates to the choice of variables which the authors of the replication study used in their attempts to control for exogenous factors that could have distorted the relationship between self-control and subsequent educational attainment.
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Indeed, our statistical analysis suggests that this difference alone accounts for one-third of the difference in outcomes between the Mischel experiment and the replication study,” says Kosse. “Of course, whether one has to wait for 7 or for 15 minutes makes a big difference to a 4-year-old.
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In the 2018 study, the duration of ‘temptation’ was shortened to 7 minutes. In the Mischel experiment, the period during which the children could decide to eat the marshmallow was 15 minutes long. In doing so, the team noticed two potentially significant methodological discrepancies between the experimental designs. In collaboration with professors Armin Falk and Pia Pinger at the University of Bonn, Kosse has now reanalyzed the data reported in the replication study. The result actually points in the same direction as the study by Mischel and colleagues, but the effect itself is somewhat less pronounced.” In our view, the interpretation of the new data overshoots the mark. In fact it demonstrates that the marshmallow test retains its predictive power when the statistical sample is more diverse and, unlike the original work, includes children of parents who do not have university degrees. “The replication study essentially confirms the outcome of the original study. Now a team led by Fabian Kosse, Professor of Applied Economics at LMU, has reassessed the data on which this interpretation is based, and the new analysis contradicts the authors’ conclusions. The report produced quite a stir in the media, as its conclusions appeared to be in conflict with those reached by Mischel. In 2018, the results of a new study designed to replicate Mischel’s experiment appeared in the journal Psychological Science. The Mischel experiment has since become an established tool in the developmental psychologist’s repertoire. The results showed that the longer his 4- and 5-year-olds were able to resist the temptation presented by the first marshmallow, the better they performed in subsequent tests of educational attainment. By its very nature, Mischel’s test is a prospective experiment, and he followed his experimental subjects over several decades. The ability to delay gratification of the desire to enjoy the treat serves as a measure of the child’s level of self-control. In the test, each child is given a treat – the eponymous marshmallow – and told that if she leaves it on the table until the experimenter returns, she will receive a second marshmallow as a reward.
MARSHMALLOW FACE REVEAL PROFESSIONAL
The test appeared to show that the degree to which young children are capable of exercising self-control is significantly correlated with their subsequent level of educational achievement and professional success. Very few experiments in psychology have had such a broad impact as the marshmallow test developed by Walter Mischel at Stanford University in the 1960s. The new analysis reaffirms the conclusions of the original study. LMU economist Fabian Kosse has re-assessed the results of a replication study which questioned the interpretation of a classical experiment in developmental psychology. Summary: A new replication of the Marshmallow Test finds the test retains its predictive power, even when the statistical sample is more diverse.